Despite ranking as one of the world’s lowest emitters of greenhouse gases, Afghanistan has been recognized by experts as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Natural disasters have increased in both severity and frequency in the country in recent years, resulting in deaths, injuries, the destruction of homes and farmland, and financial losses.
Afghanistan ranks sixth on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index of countries most vulnerable to climate change and fourth on the list of nations most at risk of climate change-related crisis, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Extreme weather and natural disasters on the rise
Temperature increases and altering rainfall patterns have become a significant concern across Afghanistan, diminishing people’s access to safe drinking water and threatening crops, livestock, and entire food systems. Water scarcity has a domino effect that can contribute to disease outbreaks, make farming impossible, and disrupt local economics, which can force people from their homes in search of better conditions. Several years of La Niña conditions brought below-average, irregular rainfall and little snow, creating a persistent drought that has threatened the 80% of Afghans who are dependent on agriculture for their income. Families and children across the country have struggled to find enough to eat.
Drought and flood have both threatened Afghanistan. In 2023, flooding in Afghanistan affected almost 27,600 people across 26 provinces, destroying homes, farmland, crops, and infrastructure. After a dry winter in 2023-2024, the pendulum swung in the opposite direction the following spring and summer. Afghanistan was hit by flooding rains that killed hundreds, swept away roads and buildings, and flooded agricultural land in Ghor, Faryab, Badakhshan, Baghlan, and Takhar provinces in the northern half of the country.
Over the long term, desertification is a steadily increasing problem in Afghanistan as well. It affects over 75% of the country’s total land area in its northern, western, and southern regions. Once-fertile, arable lands are becoming drier, slowing degrading and threatening the country’s agricultural industry and its food systems.
Other threats
Located in a seismically active region, Afghanistan is prone to regular earthquakes, including shocks capable of causing substantial damage to homes and critical infrastructure. Densely populated urban areas like Jalalabad and Kabul are particularly vulnerable, with the vast majority of buildings in Afghan cities constructed with adobe and masonry. Experts estimate that as many as 30% of these buildings are at risk of complete collapse if subjected to severe shaking, with 60% predicted to incur damage, according to the nonprofit Humanitarian Action.
In 2023, three 6.3 magnitude earthquakes struck Herat in quick succession, destroying or causing major damage to tens of thousands of homes and displacing around 275,000 Afghans. The link, if any, between climate change and earthquakes is not completely clear. However, even if earthquakes do not happen more frequently in Afghanistan, they are still a major threat to life and property there.
Changing climate can increase poverty and hunger
In addition to their devastating impact on people, communities, and businesses, floods and droughts are also increasing poverty by driving up food prices across the country. Indirectly, floods and droughts drive up food prices while depressing agricultural wages, further compounding the already significant problem of hunger in Afghanistan today. According to a report published by World Bank in December 2024, 25% of the population of Afghanistan was experiencing food insecurity, equating to 11.6 million civilians. Another report by the UN World Food Programme found that 3 million Afghans are on the brink of starvation.
Tackling the rising problem of food insecurity in Afghanistan requires a multipronged approach to make agriculture more resilient in the face of extreme weather. Farmers need support so they can plant a greater diversity of crops; choose more drought-resistant crops; adopt more advanced watershed management methods; and improve communal irrigation systems. In the shorter term, the most vulnerable families in Afghanistan need immediate food aid, which is why the Bayat Foundation has distributed winter food aid to hundreds of families in Kunduz Province this winter. The foundation also conducted a winter food distribution last winter as well. This aid will provide critical nutrition to people who are confronting hunger every day. In 2024, 3.2 million children under the age of 5 in Afghanistan experienced acute malnutrition. Since so many rely on agriculture for both food and income, low yields and crop failures quickly translate to extreme poverty for much of the country. As the world grapples with the ever-increasing impacts of the climate crisis, few nations are as vulnerable to its effects as Afghanistan. Vulnerable families across the country are already suffering, and the climate crisis is one more threat that will harm their ability to access water, earn an income, feed themselves, keep healthy, and stay safe.