Climate change is a worldwide issue that effects literally every nation on earth. Its effects have been particularly devastating to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. There, impacts have included desertification, unprecedented heat, and major water shortages. These problems are in turn exacerbating other troubles, including civil unrest and extremism. How the MENA region chooses to deal with the ongoing impact of climate change will go a long way toward determining its future. 

Major Effects of Climate Change in the MENA Region 

Probably the most impactful effect of climate change on the MENA region has been water scarcity. The drying up of many rivers, streams, and lakes has left the area with a serious lack of water for human consumption. Droughts are plaguing the region, especially in the Levant area, and Jordan is expected to see a decrease of 30 percent of its rainfall over the course of the 21st century. Already many Jordanian households receive only about one day worth of water per week.  

Syria has been experiencing severe droughts for years. At one point, it lost over 80 percent of its livestock in the eastern portion of the nation as a result of the water shortage. This was before the continuing civil war completely destroyed the infrastructure of the nation. 

The rise in temperatures in the region has contributed to the paucity of water and led to desertification—the loss of arid land to barren desert. Temperatures are projected to rise still further throughout the century, eventually leading to whole areas in the region becoming uninhabitable by humans. The MENA region’s average temperatures are rising faster than the worldwide average.  

Urban areas are becoming even hotter and the living conditions in many MENA cities could turn decidedly worse. In turn, this could lead to mass migration of peoples like has already been seen, as people leave these areas for places where they can survive. Agriculture continues to struggle from the loss of water and arid land. Food shortages are becoming more common in many parts of the region.  

The rising level of water around the world, including the Mediterranean Sea, caused by climate change is a looming threat as well. Rising sea levels push more saltwater onto the land and into wells and aquifers. This contamination of freshwater depletes the already scarce resource. The many cities and communities along the shoreline in the MENA region are also in danger of losing land to the sea. Major cities like Algiers and Alexandria could be affected. 

Side Effects of Climate Change 

Climate change is having effects well beyond just the immediate environmental impact. The droughts in Syria, for example, triggered a series of events that concluded with the ongoing civil war.  

“It was observed that displaced inhabitants of rural areas who went to seek employment in Syria’s larger cities, a large portion of which were already overpopulated, formed disenfranchised belts of disparate communities surrounding Hamah, Homs, and Daraa,” said Jamal Saghir, a former World Bank director. “This contributed ultimately to extreme political unrest outbreak of conflict in Syria, and followed by President Bashir al Assad use of his armed forces against them.”  

Lack of vital resources like water and food has already caused social unrest in numerous MENA nations. Although understandable, this frustration can become a threat to national stability and prompt severe government reactions, thus inflaming passions further and beginning a cycle of violence that can even end in civil war. Governments throughout the region are vulnerable to social protest movements, as was vividly demonstrated during the Arab Spring. As climate change wreaks further havoc on the region, these pressures are likely to continue. 

National competition for scarce water and food resources has the potential to escalate into border conflicts and even all-out warfare. Already the damming and diverting of rivers throughout the region is causing international tensions as nations see their water resources diminished significantly as a result of the actions of their neighbors.  

This is bound to continue since over two thirds of the region’s freshwater crosses at least one international boundary. Unless some multinational or regional agreements can be reached over the use of resources, there will be winners and losers in the water sweepstakes. Considering the scarcity of freshwater throughout the MENA region, this could well lead to human suffering and force disadvantaged nations into becoming more hostile.  

Climate change is affecting the entire world, but the MENA region has been impacted more than most. The very real problems caused by climate change will only continue to get worse in the short term and this has the potential to lead to international conflict, the last thing the region needs if it is to find real solutions to the problems of desertification, rising temperatures, and water scarcity.