The Middle East is a region that has long suffered from a scarcity of water. The prevalence of desert terrain and the extremely hot temperatures combine to make water a rare commodity. This water problem is being exacerbated by the growth in population throughout the region. More people means more demand for water. However, this demand cannot be met, and the problem could grow even worse in the future if current trends continue.
Population Growth Trends in the Middle East
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been growing steadily in population for decades. In 1970 the region was home to just under 175 million people. By 2001 that number had increased to 385 million, and based on current growth trends, the total population is expected to grow to 568 million by 2035. The overall annual growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa is 1.7 percent, higher than the worldwide average of 1.3 percent. Different nations in the region have grown at very different rates, and some nations, like Lebanon, are expected to lose population over the next decade.
Population growth is mostly restricted to the urban areas of the region. Almost 60 percent of the total population lives in urban areas. In nine countries in the MENA region, over 75 percent of the population lives in cities. Part of this trend is due to the typical movement of people from rural to urban areas. Other causes are the influx of refugees from conflicts throughout the region and the import of foreign workers to the Gulf States.
The rapid population growth creates more demand for agricultural products. Quite simply, more people need more food. The increased agricultural demand, in turn, leads to more and more water resources being diverted for use in growing food and livestock.
As agriculture uses more water and provides less water sustainability than other uses, the problem of water scarcity becomes increasingly acute. Then, the cycle of population growth demanding more food, more water put into agriculture, and less water available for personal use continues. The resulting water scarcity drives population migration to areas with more available water. The water resources of these areas then become taxed as the influx of people move in, leading to more water scarcity.
What Can Be Done to Mitigate Water Scarcity in the Face of a Growing Population?
While the pressures of population growth are stretching water resources across the MENA region, there are ways to mitigate the water scarcity problem. Massive desalinization efforts, mostly in the richer Persian Gulf states, are underway to reclaim fresh water from the seas. Desalinization comes with its own problems (expense and environmental effects being most prominent), but if used in moderation, it can alleviate water scarcity in certain areas.
Agriculture uses a very considerable portion of the water resources of the MENA region. Some of the crops grown in the Middle East are exported outside the region, and some, such as cotton from Egypt, are not food sources at all. Cutting down on agriculture for export might hurt the balance of trade numbers, but it would increase the water supply. Switching to less water-intensive crops and importing more food from outside the region would lessen the demand for agriculture and free up water for other uses.
Conflict resolution is desperately needed in the Middle East. The number of refugees and displaced persons in the region is high. In Lebanon, for example, it is estimated that 25 percent of the total population are refugees. Over 12 million people are internally displaced throughout the region due to conflicts in nations like Yemen and Syria. The ongoing civil wars in those two countries contribute tremendously to the movement of people around the region. More must be done by countries in the region—and internationally—to end these conflicts and rebuild the destroyed infrastructure and return people to their homes. This would help with the water scarcity tremendously.
Also, the water distribution system throughout the Middle East needs to be upgraded or even replaced with newer technologies. Some of the nations with lower GDP, such as Jordan, have tried to address these problems by setting standards for new buildings to maximize water conservation. Saudi Arabia has been aggressive in using the latest technologies available in desalinization and water distribution.
Many nations have antiquated governmental systems that divide the responsibility for water resources among various civic institutions. This results in a confusing state of affairs where different authorities wind up working at cross purposes, delaying projects unnecessarily, and failing to construct an overall water strategy. Jordan recently gave the national Ministry of Water and Irrigation full power over water resource planning, streamlining the decision-making process considerably. Other nations would be wise to follow Jordan’s example. By creating a single strategy at the national level, Middle Eastern countries can better deal with the water scarcity problem before disasters happen.